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啤酒设备市场分析

时间:2013/3/5 0:41:57

啤酒设备市场分析

Market analysis for beer equipment

一、20112015年大型啤酒厂设备产量回归预测结果(万台)

一、Regression Production Forecast of the Large Beer Equipment from 2011 to 2015 (10,000 units)

大型啤酒厂设备产量

增长率

2011

440392.73

5.60%

2012

469259.36

6.55%

2013

500583.23

6.68%

2014

534364.34

6.75%

2015

570602.69

6.78%

资料来源:回归分析

Year

Production of the Large Beer Equipment

Growth  Rate

2011

440392.73

5.60%

2012

469259.36

6.55%

2013

500583.23

6.68%

2014

534364.34

6.75%

2015

570602.69

6.78%

Source:Regression Analysis

2010-2015年大型啤酒厂设备市场不同领域应用预测如下:

Application Forecast of the Large Beer Equipment in various fields from 2010 to 2015 as following:

2010-2015年大型啤酒厂设备不同领域销量预测(万台)

Sales Forecast of the Large Beer Equipment in various fields from 2010 to 2015 (10,000 units)

 

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

原料粉碎

76618.03

80096.66

84053.17

88009.68

91966.19

95922.70

糖化

27566.27

28817.85

30241.35

31664.86

33088.37

34511.87

发酵

37295.55

38988.85

40914.77

42840.69

44766.61

46692.53

啤酒过滤

27160.89

28394.05

29796.63

31199.20

32601.77

34004.34

洗瓶灌装

49457.14

51702.61

54256.54

56810.48

59364.42

61918.36

压盖杀菌

47430.21

49583.65

52032.92

54482.18

56931.45

59380.72

其它

139858.30

146208.19

153430.39

160652.59

167874.80

175097.00

数据来源:相关经济模型分析

Item

Year

 

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Material Crushing

76618.03

80096.66

84053.17

88009.68

91966.19

95922.70

Saccharification

27566.27

28817.85

30241.35

31664.86

33088.37

34511.87

Fermentation

37295.55

38988.85

40914.77

42840.69

44766.61

46692.53

Beer Filtration

27160.89

28394.05

29796.63

31199.20

32601.77

34004.34

Washing Bottling

49457.14

51702.61

54256.54

56810.48

59364.42

61918.36

Capping Sterilization

47430.21

49583.65

52032.92

54482.18

56931.45

59380.72

Others

139858.30

146208.19

153430.39

160652.59

167874.80

175097.00

Source:analysis for relevant models

2010-2015年大型啤酒厂设备消费结构

Consumption Structure of the Large Beer Equipment from 2010 to 2015

数据来源:相关经济模型分析

Source: Analysis of Relevant Economic Models

从国内需求来看,世界大型啤酒厂设备生产和消费结构正在迅速发生变化,由以往的欧洲和北美市场转移到了亚洲市场,需求则以东亚和中国为重心,巨大的需求预期,刺激着各现有厂商不断扩大产能。

In terms of domestic demands, production and consumption structure of the large beer equipment worldwide are changing so rapidly that the main market transferred from Europe and North America to Asia and the new focus being China and other countries in East Asia. Huge demand forecast is spurring the existing manufactures to constantly increase production  capacities.

根据国家统计局统计,2006年国内大型啤酒厂设备表观需求量为312298万台,截止2010年为373809万台,具体见下图:

According to National Bureau of Statistics, apparent demand for domestic large beer equipment in 2006 reached 3,122,980 thousand units and increased to 3,738,090 thousand units. Please find detailed information as the chart below:

二、2006-20113月我国大型啤酒厂设备行业表观需求总量统计

二、Aggregate Apparent Demand Statistics of China’s Large Beer Equipment industry in March from 2006 to 2011

表现需求量(万台):Apparent Demand Volume (10,000 units)

增长率:Growth Rate

资料来源:多点、多样本、多数据对行业数据调研

Source: research on industry data by multiple spot, sample and data

大型啤酒厂设备行业未来需求预测分析

Analysis for Future Demand Forecast of the Large Beer Equipment Industry

本预测方法为回归分析法

The way of forecast is regression analysis.

图表 120062010年大型啤酒厂设备表观需求量拟合

Chart One. Apparent Demand-fitting of the Large Beer Equipment from 2006 to 2010

资料来源:相关资料整理

Source: compiled relevant information

20112015年大型啤酒厂设备表观需求量回归预测结果(万台)

Regression Forecast Result of Apparent Demand for the Large Beer Equipment from 2011 to 2015 (10,000 units)

大型啤酒厂设备表观需求量

增长率

2011

387453

3.65%

2012

402083

3.78%

2013

416712

3.64%

2014

431342

3.51%

2015

445972

3.39%

资料来源:相关资料整理

Year

Apparent Demand for the Large Beer Equipment

Growth Rate

2011

387453

3.65%

2012

402083

3.78%

2013

416712

3.64%

2014

431342

3.51%

2015

445972

3.39%

Source: compiled relevant information

三、进出口总量对比分析

根据海关总署的统计,2007年我国大型啤酒厂设备行业进口总量为13862万台,出口总量为40314万台,截止2010年进出口总量分别为12427万台和55639万台。

图表 22006-20113月年中国大型啤酒厂设备进出口量对比

资料来源:以海关总署为主,多点、多样本、多数据对行业数据调研

根据海关总署的统计,2007年我国大型啤酒厂设备行业进口总额为4031万美元,出口总额为9071万美元,截止2010年进出口总量分别为4199万美元和14609万美元。

2006-20113月年中国大型啤酒厂设备进出口金额对比

Comparison of China’s import and export volume of the Large Beer Equipment in March from 2006 to 2011

资料来源:以海关总署为主,多点、多样本、多数据对行业数据调研

Source: mainly based on the statistics from the General Administration of Customs, industry data research by multiple point, sample, data

四、2010年大型啤酒厂设备行业投资结构

四、Investment Structure of the Large Beer Equipment Industry in 2010

2010年我国大型啤酒厂设备行业总体投资额为10.91亿元,其中外资部分占比为38.2%。具体见下图:

Total investment volume of China’s large beer equipment in 2010 is 1.091 billion RMB , foreign investment accounted for 38.3%.Detailed information as the chart below:

2010年大型啤酒厂设备行业投资结构

Investment Structure of the Large Beer Equipment industry in 2010

外资:foreign-funded 内资:domestically-funded

资料来源:国家统计局

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

投资机会分析 

Analysis for Investment Opportunity

一、    投资机会分析

一、Analysis for Investment Opportunit

C=0.3×[1+d1j÷1+D1j]+0.2×[1+d2j÷1+D2j]+0.25×[1+d3j÷1+D3j]+0.25×d4j÷D4j

其中,C表示行业活力系数,j表示行业,D1d1表示全行业及企业销售收入增长率,D2d2表示全行业及企业总资产增长率,D3d3表示全行业及企业所有者权益增长率,D4d4表示全行业及企业劳动生产率。每个因式前的常数(0.30.20.250.25)是根据每个指标的重要程度而分别赋予的权重。若企业的各项指标都处于该行业的平均水平,则活力系数为1,活力系数愈大,企业活力愈强。

From this equation, C represents industry activity coefficient;J represents industry; D1 and d1 represent proprietary interests of the enterprise and the whole industry;D4 and d4 represent labor productivity of the enterprise and the whole industry. Constants before each factor (0.3,0.2,0.25,0.25)are weights imposed based on importance of each indicator. If every indicator of the enterprise is at the average level of the industry,while the activity coefficient is 1. The larger activity coefficient is, more powerful activity of the enterprise become.

预计2011年大型啤酒厂设备行业活力系数为6.6。据此推测,目前行业具有较大的投资机会。

It is expected the industry activity coefficient of the large beer equipment in 2011 is 6.6. Based on such estimates, there are bigger opportunities for the current industry.

二、    可行研究分析

二、Analysis for Feasibility

投资收益率等于公司投资收益除以平均投资额的比值。用公式表示为:投资收益率=投资收益/平均投资额×100%;式中:平均投资额=(期初长、短期投资+期末长、短期投资)/2。该指标反映公司利用资金进行长、短期投资的获利能力。

Return on investment of the enterprise divided by average investment volume equals the rate of return on investment. It could be expressed as a formulation: the rate of return on investment = return on investment/average investment volume * 100%. In the formulation, average investment volume = (begining long-and-short-term investment + ending long-and-short-term investment)/2.Such indicator represents the profitable capability for the enterprise by long-and-short-term investment of capital.

虽然2009年大型啤酒厂设备行业投资收益率为21.52%,较2008年有所下降,但是2010年上半年行业的投资收益率为25.98%,呈现上升趋势。目前是投资的时机。

Rate of return on investment of the large beer equipment in 2009 is 21.52%, somewhat lower than that in 2008. But such rate on the first half of 2011 showed upbeat as 25.98%. It is the time to invest now.

三、2010-2015年大型啤酒厂设备行业投资效益分析 

三、Profit Analysis for investment of the Large Beer Equipment from 2010 to 2015

预计大型啤酒厂设备行业2010-2015年投资收益率情况如下,2009年投资收益率预计为21.52%2010年投资收益率预计为23.74%2011年投资收益率预计为24.25%2012年投资收益率预计为25.22%。总体看来,随着未来我国经济大环境的逐步发展,大型啤酒厂设备投资收益率将稳步提高。

It is estimated the rate of return on investment of the large beer equipment from 2010 to 2015 is as following: forecast rates of return on investment of the large beer equipment in 2009,2010, 2011,2012 are 21.52%,23.74%,24.25%,25.22% respectively. Generally speaking, as China’s future economy broader environment is gradually developing, the rate of return on investment of the large beer equipment will be firmly increasing.

2010-2015年大型啤酒厂设备行业投资收益率预测

Forecast Rate of Return on Investment of the Large Beer Equipment from 2010 to 2015

资料来源:相关资料整理

Source: compiled relevant information

四、2010年大型啤酒厂设备行业投资趋势预测 

四、Investment Trend Forecast of the Large Beer Equipment Industry in 2011

预计2010-2015年大型啤酒厂设备行业投资趋势呈现投资项目倾向于中高端的大型啤酒厂设备,预计2010-2015年平均占全行业投资占63.59%,其次为低端大型啤酒厂设备,投资比例占36.41%

It is estimated investment trend forecast of the large beer equipment industry from 2010 to 2015 will show weighing on the investment of the medium and high end large beer equipment, average investment of the whole industry from 2010 to 2015 will account for 63.59% and the low end large beer equipment will account for 36.41%.

五、2010年大型啤酒厂设备行业的投资方向 

五、Orientation of Investment on the Large Beer Equipment in 2010

从下图预测来看,2010-2015年大型啤酒厂设备行业投资方向主要为:开发营销渠道投资,提升品牌影响力,加大广告宣传投资;加大新产品推出,在产品研发方面的投资;提高产品质量和提高劳动生产率,在设备和工艺方面投资;扩大生产规模方面的投资。

From the estimates of the table below, orientation of investment on the large beer equipment from 2010 to 2015 is mainly as: investment on developing marketing channel to enhancing the brand impact and increase investment on advertisement, investment on R&D of the product to expand the new product’s launching, investment on the equipment and process to improve quality of the product and labor productivity, investment on expanding the scale of production.

2010-2015年大型啤酒厂设备行业投资方向预测

Orientation Forecast of Investment on the Large Beer Equipment from 2010 to 2015

产品研发方面的投资: investment on R&D of the product

设备和工艺方面投资: investment on the equipment and process

开发营销渠道投资: investment on developing marketing channel

提升品牌影响力投资: investment on enhancing the brand impact

扩大生产规模投资: investment on expanding the scale of production

作者:和成铜业 录入:和成铜业 来源:原创
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